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Show: The Memphis Real Estate Hour
Hosted By: Dean Harris
Guests: Wendy Greenlaw and Dan Butler
Title: 2018 Market Update/30 vs 15 Year Mortgages
Date: October 16, 2018
Video Link: https://youtu.be/ZxPZHAQUc30
Third-Quarter Market Report with Wendy Greenlaw of Chandler Reports
Wendy Greenlaw discusses Q3 numbers for 2018. We may notice a shift in the market. She reported that the number of units sold this quarter is down by 6% compared to Q3 last year. On the other hand, the average sales price is stabilizing, it is up by 4%. The sale of home units is down 1%. Although, she predicted that it will reach record-high by the end of 2018.
Limited New Construction
The number of home permits is significantly low at 22%. This is because there are limited areas for people to build on. The construction projects in Memphis are mostly mixed type of project. She also stated that the investor sale is at 35%, which is down. From that, roughly 50% are out-of-town buyers while 1% are investors outside the US.
The places with most investor purchases are Frayser, Westwood, Raleigh (38109), University, and Oak Park Village (38118). The top performing Zip codes with 10% increase in home sales as well as average home sale price are 38106, 38107, 38109, 38112, 38126, 38127, and 38129.
Hedgefunds Moving Out?
The most notable feature in Q3 is the lack of hedgefund activities. This maybe the biggest reason why the number of home sales is down. This factor affects the quality of the neighborhood and it is definitely something to keep an eye on.
Stagnating Rent and Increased Prices
Moreover, the inventory of houses is low. Some homeowners are having trouble pricing their properties. Most properties are overpriced, which is why there is a significant increase in average home sales price. House rent is pretty much stagnant. For retail, buyers are paying around 30,000 to 35,000 while investors pay around 40,000.
Wendy predicted that the retail market will continue to slow down in the beginning of 2019. However, the average home price will continue to spike up higher than the normal rate.
30 vs 15 Year Mortgage
Dan and Dean finish off the show with the debate about getting a 30-year vs. a 15-year loan. Most people opt for a 30-year note because of the cash flow and higher increase. The tax is also lower. However, there is a high-interest expense and there is little flexibility. The savings is also not as big and you have to pay more for a property.
A 15-year note is a bit tight. You need to watch all money that comes and goes with it. But, a 15-year note is the right amount of time in paying a lifetime of assets. It also gives the investors flexibility for their choices. In the end, it will boil down to the investor’s preferences in regards to their long term goal.
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